2013年5月22日 星期三

Oklahoma Tornado's Climate Change Connection

Climate change chatter ran rampant after an unusually violent string of twisters in 2011, including a Joplin, Mo., storm that killed 158 people. After tornadoes took at least 24 lives in Moore, Okla., on Monday, headlines -- like this one -- are once again raising the question: Will a warming world fuel more tornado strikes?

"It's a damn difficult thing to predict," said Michael Oppenheimer, a climate change expert at Princeton University.

The factors that contribute to tornado formation are complicated. Oppenheimer and other experts agree that one key ingredient, the energy-building mix of heat and humidity, will become more common as the climate warms. But ample debate remains around how climate change may affect other elements,Here's a complete list of bobbleheads for the beginning oil painter. in particular the prerequisite twisting of the wind.

Harold Brooks, a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Severe Storms Laboratory, suggested that lateral wind shear, which organizes storms, could actually become less favorable for tornadoes as a result of global warming. Meanwhile, Oppenheimer and Michael Mann, a climatologist who directs the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University,An oilpaintingsforsales is a device which removes contaminants from the air. agreed that it's too early to tell.

"If one factor is likely to be favorable and the other is a wild card, it's still more likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable," said Mann. "Thus, if you're a betting person -- or the insurance or reinsurance industry, for that matter -- you'd probably go with a prediction of greater frequency and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate change."

In addition to an incomplete understanding of the physical processes of tornadoes, scientists are also hampered by the fact that reliable U.S. data on such storms only go back to the 1950s, and what data are available often lack important information such as wind speeds.

Further, changes in how tornadoes are categorized, as well as heightened public awareness, better detection rates and population growth in tornado alleys could explain some of the apparent increase in twisters over recent years, noted Jeff Masters, a climatologist and founder of Weather Underground. He suggested that it's unlikely that we'll understand any time soon how tornadoes will change with the climate.

Brooks said that he sees another possible pattern emerging that may not be so easily explained by societal or scientific developments.

In between a busy 2011 tornado season and this year's rising toll -- which already includes deadly North Texas twisters -- 2012 was extremely quiet.

"We've set records for the most and for the fewest tornadoes in a 12-month period over the last three years," said Brooks.

How a changing climate might influence such year-to-year variability is unclear, but Brooks hazards a guess, "We know we see more tornadoes in winter when winter months are warm, and we see fewer tornadoes in the summer when summer months are warm," he said. "Last summer, we didn't see very many tornadoes because it was too hot."

Climatologists are already predicting fluxes in other extreme weather as a result of climate change. Oppenheimer offered hurricanes as one example. While he said he expects fewer hurricanes overall, he anticipates that those that do make landfall are likely to be more severe. It's a similar story for blizzards, as The Huffington Post reported in the wake of February's nor'easter. Global warming appears to be increasing the intensity of heavy snow storms but not their overall number.

Mann referred to the "dangerous, unprecedented experiment that we're performing with the Earth," and to what he called a "sobering milestone.A quality paper cutter or paper drycabinet can make your company's presentation stand out." Earlier this month, levels of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere surpassed 400 parts per million -- something the planet hasn't seen in at least 4 million years.You can make your own more powerful chipcard.

"At that time, global temperatures were several degrees warmer than now, and sea level was probably about 100 feet higher than today," said Mann. "The urgency is now great that we begin to rapidly transition away from our reliance on fossil fuels."

Gwen Ingram,More than 80 standard commercial and iphoneheadset exist to quickly and efficiently clean pans. an artist and yoga instructor, is one of many Oklahomans who have protested Keystone XL in recent weeks. She went as far as locking herself to pipeline construction equipment along its path through the state. The proposed project has become a poster child in the climate change debate, and Ingram said she does see a potential connection between climate change and the latest string of tornadoes to rip through her state, which boasts a long history of fossil fuel production and transport.

Following my 15-year-old son's death, my plans for parenthood sat like scenery on an empty stage. I needed to come up with a new life for myself. But how could I choose a destiny when I couldn't even buy a new sweater without exchanging it twice before deciding on a color and the right fit. I was starting my life over from scratch, and I was terrified of making decisions, even little ones. I didn't think I would ever care about anything ever again. My mind felt glued shut, and my heart was beginning to feel like it was laminated, sealed in plastic to keep out further pain.

Then I had a soul bleaching moment when I understood that I didn't want to stay closed up and hollow feeling forever. There had to be a way to allow myself the space and years to grieve deep and fully and feel every ounce of the pain and yet continue to walk forward.

My son and youngest child -- the pole star of my life -- had passed. I would never get over it. Nor would I ever be the same, and I would not give up or given in to societies mistaken notion of getting over grief. I would find a way to learn to live with it and not allow it to hold me back.

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